Market bullish expectations persist, rare earth prices fluctuate upward [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]

On July 31st:

Rare Earth Ores:

Today, the price range of rare earth carbonate is 42,600-42,900 yuan/mt, monazite prices have adjusted to 49,000-50,500 yuan/mt, and the price of medium-yttrium, europium-rich ore is approximately 209,000-211,000 yuan/mt. Recently, the overall prices of rare earth ores have continued to rise, primarily due to the strong bullish sentiment among suppliers in the market, who are reluctant to sell at low prices. The quotes from ore-side suppliers have still slightly increased, but considering the weak purchase willingness of separation plants, the room for price increases is limited.

Rare Earth Oxides:

Currently, the price of lanthanum oxide has slightly adjusted to 4,200-5,000 yuan/mt, and the price of cerium oxide has remained stable at 10,500-11,000 yuan/mt this week. Overall, the prices of lanthanum and cerium oxides have remained relatively stable. This week, the price of Pr-Nd oxide has continued to rise rapidly. According to market feedback, the current supply of Pr-Nd oxide is tightening, and market bullish sentiment is high. With suppliers offering firm quotes, it is difficult to find low-priced goods in the market. Meanwhile, downstream orders have also increased, and the demand for rare earths has grown to a certain extent compared to before. With the aggravation of the supply-demand mismatch, the price of Pr-Nd has also continued to hold up well. This week, the prices of medium-heavy rare earths have remained relatively stable overall. The market inquiry activity for medium-heavy rare earth oxides has declined compared to the previous period, and some suppliers have reduced prices to sell, leading to slight fluctuations in the prices of some medium-heavy rare earth oxides. The price of yttrium oxide has remained relatively stable this week, staying at 46,000-48,000 yuan/mt.

Rare Earth Metals:

This week, the price of Pr-Nd alloy has shown a fluctuating upward trend due to the support of actual market transactions and oxide costs. Influenced by the rapid rise in the price of Pr-Nd oxide, metal quotes have followed suit, but downstream orders find it difficult to accept high-priced Pr-Nd alloy, resulting in difficulties in closing high-priced deals in the Pr-Nd alloy market. The inversion phenomenon between Pr-Nd alloy and oxide still exists. At the beginning of the week, with magnetic material enterprises concentrating their procurement of Pr-Nd alloy, low-priced goods in the market quickly tightened, and prices continued to hold up well this week. For medium-heavy rare earths, market inquiry activity has been weak. Although prices increased at the beginning of the week due to the cost support from the oxide market, actual transactions were sluggish, and subsequent prices were in the doldrums.

Rare Earth Permanent Magnets:

The prices of NdFeB blanks are as follows: NdFeB blank N38 (Ce) is priced at 171-181 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 40M is priced at 217-227 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 40H is priced at 212-222 yuan/kg; NdFeB blank 45SH (Ce) is priced at 271-291 yuan/kg.

This week, domestic rare earth magnetic material prices showed a mild upward trend, primarily driven by the cost transmission of upstream raw materials. The prices of Pr-Nd oxide and metal continued to fluctuate upward this week, providing solid price support for the magnetic material sector. Consequently, magnetic material enterprises generally attempted to raise their quotes. However, given the relatively low acceptance of the sustained and rapid increase in current raw material prices by downstream end-users, magnetic material enterprises adopted a relatively cautious strategy in this round of price adjustments: their quote increases were limited and generally lagged behind the raw material price increases, failing to fully pass on the upstream cost pressure.

The trading activity in the magnetic material market slightly declined this week. Market feedback indicates that although there has been an increase in inquiry volumes from downstream, actual trading volumes have not correspondingly risen, showing a certain degree of "more inquiries, fewer purchases" phenomenon. There are three reasons for this. Firstly, wait-and-see sentiment dominates: As month-end approaches, some end-users, although starting to plan for stockpiling in the next period, generally maintain a strong wait-and-see attitude in the face of the continuously rising Pr-Nd raw material prices and the slightly following magnetic material prices. Their purchasing behavior is relatively conservative, and no significant urgent demand has been released. This directly leads to no significant surge in the overall magnetic material delivery volume this week. Secondly, it is due to the differentiation of order structures: New overseas orders show a clear concentration effect towards top-tier enterprises, mainly flowing to large magnetic material enterprises, limiting the new overseas orders that medium and small-sized magnetic material enterprises can obtain. Thirdly, price fluctuations inhibit purchasing: Given the significant increase in the price fluctuations of Pr-Nd raw materials in recent times, some domestic end-users (especially small and medium-sized enterprises) have suspended or significantly slowed down their magnetic material purchasing pace based on risk control considerations, instead prioritizing the digestion of existing inventories. This strategy has led to low enthusiasm for inquiries, becoming another important factor suppressing this week's trading volume and delaying deliveries.

Rare Earth Scrap:

This week, the price of Pr-Nd recycled from NdFeB scrap was reported at 572-577 yuan/kg; the price of dysprosium recycled from NdFeB scrap was reported at 1,643-1,654 yuan/kg; the price of terbium recycled from NdFeB scrap was reported at 5,439-5,550 yuan/kg.

This week, the scrap market prices held up well, mainly influenced by the continuous upward trend in the oxide market prices. The oxide market prices remained high, and under the influence of the tight oxide supply situation, the oxide market generally held a positive outlook on future prices, making it difficult for oxide prices to experience significant declines. Consequently, the scrap market showed strong reluctance to sell, with suppliers unwilling to sell at low prices, making it difficult for recycling enterprises to purchase at low prices. Meanwhile, in the face of the continuous rise in scrap prices, purchasing behavior has become polarized. Top-tier enterprises' oxide sales are normal, and their actual purchasing has not been affected by the increase in scrap prices, with scrap purchasing operations proceeding normally. However, due to the difficulty in procuring low-priced scrap, the procurement volume of scrap by small and medium-sized factories has declined. It is expected that in the short term, supported by the prices of oxides, aluminum scrap prices will not experience a significant decline.